Interview Paul Kyriazi: The art of romance "James Bond" style

FLORIDA, September 1, 2012 — Romance is of tremendous importance to any given James Bond story. What can men learn from the unique relationship between Bond and the opposite gender?

Planning for the future is an extremely important thing. However, Bond does appear to live in the moment. Is there any way of finding a balanced center which emphasizes both wisdom and excitement?

In living the Bond lifestyle, is it more important to own things, or rather experience them? Above all else, is personal confidence the essence of James Bond? If not, then what might be?

In this second and final part of our discussion, Paul Kyriazi, who has educated men across the world about the Bond philosophy, will answer all of these questions and tell us a bit about his life and career.       

****    

Joseph F. Cotto: Romance is of tremendous importance to any given Bond story. What can men learn from the unique relationship between Bond and the opposite gender?

Paul Kyriazi: We know that James Bond enjoys women, but you’ve never seen him try to change any woman. Bond has no pre-conceived idea of what a woman should be. He takes each woman, even a villainess, at face value and lets her be herself. Bond’s attractive power with women is that he is on a mission. He has a purpose, he’s not “hanging out“, and it’s a positive purpose of trying to save the world from destruction.

Bond seldom chases the woman. He let’s the woman approach him. The actor George Hamilton, who has a reputation as a “ladies man” summed it up perfectly when he said, “I’ve never forced the issue of sexual involvement. Women make that decision. And as long as you make them feel comfortable, you’ll arrive there quicker than guys breathing down their neck.” James Bond never ‘breathes down their neck”.

In my James Bond Lifestyle seminar, I teach ‘The Ultimate Secret of Women’. And many women have told me, “Paul, you’ve hit the nail on the head with that one.” The ‘secret’ is; ‘Girls Just Wanna Have Fun’ just like the Cindi Lauper record. Of course, they first want love, respect and security, and most men will give them that. But what men often forget is that women also want ‘fun’.

So the man has to be the ‘director of fun’ and plan outings that the woman can enjoy. You know that James Bond would never sit home with his woman and watch three football games in a row. He’d be taking her to a luxury resort and saying things like, “Don’t bother to pack. Just bring your passport and we’ll buy what we need on the way.”

Cotto: Planning for the future is an extremely important thing. However, Bond does seem to live in the moment. Is there any way of finding a balanced center which emphasizes both wisdom and excitement?

Kyriazi: When he’s on a mission, James Bond certainly must live in the moment. He has to navigate the challenges that come to him as he proceeds to stop whatever evil he’s up against. When he is off duty, such as you see him lying in a small boat on the river with his girl of the moment Sylvia Trench, he is certainly relaxed with no plans except for the next few moments. The age old choice of the “wisdom of security” versus the “excitement of risk” seems not to concern Bond.

We often see him concentrated when it gets down to the final countdown on a mission, but we almost never see him afraid. Eliminating as much fear from our minds is upmost if we want to emulate 007 and have an exciting life. Yet, notice that Bond carried 50 gold sovereigns in his briefcase for back-up, valued at $19,000. (One full sovereign = 1/4 oz.) Gold can get us out of more dangerous situations than a Walther PPK.

Cotto: Despite being a man of refined taste, Bond does not seem to own many of the finer things. From stays in tropical resorts to refurbished Aston Martins, these are typically paid for by the British government. In living the Bond lifestyle, is it more important to actually own things, or rather experience them?

Kyriazi: Your question has struck to the very heart of living the James Bond Lifestyle. ‘Lifestyle’ leans more to the ‘livingness‘ side of life, than to the ‘ownership‘ side. We can live like James Bond if we think of ‘living‘, not ‘ownership‘. So, for example, instead of buying a second house, we can start taking ‘mental ownership’ of hotels as our second homes. It’s cheaper to do and we can have ‘second homes’ all around the world, just by using hotels.

And just think, you don’t have to clean up the place and carry in boxes of bed sheets, soap and shampoo. Your ‘second homes’ will have all that waiting for you when you check in. As 007 says in ‘On Her Majesty’s Secret Service’ when he is shown to his first class hotel room, “This will do. This will do me nicely.”

Cotto: Above all else, is personal confidence the essence of James Bond? If not, then what do you think might be?

Kyriazi: James Bond certainly did not have confidence when he was trying to disarm Goldfinger’s nuclear device in Ft. Knox. He was really sweating out the countdown until an expert showed up to turn it off. In ‘On Her Majesty’s Secret Service’ at the ice rink, surrounded by killers, Bond was at a complete loss of what to do and worried. It took his girlfriend Tracy to get him out of danger.

Confidence is not the essence of 007, perseverance is. No matter what, James Bond keeps going. He may have great setbacks, get beat up and tortured, but he never breaths a word about giving up. He perseveres to the end.

Without perseverance, no mission is accomplished. The attributes of confidence, intelligence, talent and education can help, but without perseverance James Bond would have been killed by Oddjob long before the bomb exploded making all that gold radioactive.

Cotto: Now that our discussion is at its end, many readers are probably wondering how you not only came to be a noted writer about the Bond philosophy, but a figure in the entertainment industry. Tell us a bit about your life and career.

Kyriazi: At age 8, I saw “The Making of ‘20,000 Leagues Under the Sea’ ” on Disneyland TV and decided I wanted to make movies too. I made 16mm action stories in film school and then on to directing independent feature films such as ‘Omega Cop’ starring Adam West who played Batman on TV.

In the ‘90s when independent feature films were difficult to get financed, and I was unable to break into Hollywood movies, I turned to making full-cast audio-books for novels I had written working with movie stars that I loved as a little boy, such as Rod Taylor, Robert Culp, David Hedison and George Chakiris. Even though they were in their ‘70s, they could still play leading men in my audio-books. It was a dream that I never thought possible.

So sometimes, when you don’t get exactly where you plan to go, if you preserve through the disappointments, you will get to a wonderful place that you didn’t even know existed.

Having survived as a creative freelancer all my life, I started getting questions about how I was able to do that. Since I had always had James Bond in my mind as living a lifestyle of luxury and adventure, I used him as an example to teach the success techniques that I had learned from books and seminars.

In 1998, I recorded a 90 minute cassette tape called ‘How to Live the James Bond Lifestyle’. I later expanded it into a 230 page book, and then to an eight hour audio-book and now a 342 page Kindle book. I’m still using those ‘Bond techniques’ to get to new levels of creativity and lifestyle, so I can continue to walk into luxury hotel rooms and say, “This will do. This will do me nicely.”

Source: http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/life-stories/2012/sep/1/paul-kyriazi-art-living-james-bond/#ixzz2htGthwoC

Inwestycja Polic w Senegalu (zrodlo: gazeta.pl)

Police za 28 mln dol. przejęły kopalnię w Senegalu. 'Afrykański przyczółek'

Wojciech Matusiak 2013-08-29

• Inwestycja Polic w Senegalu 
• 
  
  
• Inwestycja Polic w Senegalu 
• Polska grupa chemiczna z Polic podpisała wczoraj umowę kupna większościowego pakietu akcji firmy African Investment Group, która posiada w Senegalu dostęp do złóż fosforytów używanych do produkcji nawozów

- Z Afryką Subsaharyjską, na terenie której leży Senegal, mamy historycznie bardzo mało związków. Ograniczają się one w zasadzie do znajomości Stasia i Nel, bohaterów powieści Henryka Sienkiewicza "W pustyni i w puszczy" - żartował podczas konferencji prasowej Grupy Azoty Zakłady Chemiczne Police prof. Witold Orłowski, ekonomista z PwC. Teraz ma się to zmienić za sprawą przejęcia przez polską firmę większościowego pakietu akcji w spółce African Investment Group, która wydobywa w Senegalu fosforyty - podstawowy składnik nawozu używanego przy uprawie roślin. Będzie to kosztować bagatela 28,85 mln dol. To pierwsza tego typu inwestycja w branży chemicznej w Polsce.

Afrykański przyczółek

Jak zaznacza prezes Polic Krzysztof Jałosiński, nie chodzi tylko o niezbędne firmie surowce, ale też o stworzenie przyczółku do ekspansji na rynki afrykańskie.

- Senegal będzie stanowić centrum produkcji i dystrybucji nawozów do innych krajów w Afryce. Aby zoptymalizować cały proces, statki transportujące surowce do Polic w drogę powrotną będą przewozić nawozy przeznaczone na sprzedaż na rynki afrykańskie. Za kilka lat planujemy uruchomić własną produkcję kwasu fosforowego - zakłada.

Jednak przyznaje, że wejście do Senegalu to naprawdę duże wyzwanie: - Poruszamy się tam dopiero od 1,5 roku i nie jest łatwo. Ale damy radę - kwituje Jałosiński.

Zakup African Investment Group zostanie sfinansowany w trzech transzach uzależnionych od postępu prac eksploatacyjnych. Jeśli się okaże, że coś pójdzie nie tak, jak powinno, np. przeszacowane złoża czy ryzyko polityczne, to Police mogą wstrzymać się z kolejną wpłatą.

Surowiec o połowę tańszy

Z Senegalu do Polski może przypływać docelowo do miliona ton surowca fosforowego rocznie. Początkowo plany to 200-300 ton rocznie. Szacunkowa wielkość złóż to ok. 56 mln ton fosforytów i półtora miliona ton piasków ilmenitowych. Według szacunków Azotów uniezależnienie się od dostawców zewnętrznych już w przyszłym roku pozwoli zaoszczędzić ok. 30 mln zł. Ernst & Young wskazuje, że fabryka w Policach kupuje fosforyty średnio po 180 dol.w za tonę. To kilkanaście procent kosztów produkcji nawozu. Główni konkurencji wydobywają surowiec po ok. 60 dol. za tonę plus koszty transportu na poziomie 30 dol. za tonę.

Czy jest tam bezpiecznie?

W Afryce Północnej wrze, o czym przekonali się turyści wyjeżdżający chociażby do Egiptu. Z Syrii ciągle dochodzą makabryczne doniesienia na temat kolejnych ofiar i możliwej interwencji wojsk amerykańskich. Czy Senegal to bezpieczny kierunek?

- To kraj stabilny politycznie i gospodarczo. To jedno z ośmiu państw Zachodnioafrykańskiej Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej. Jest też jednym z najszybciej rozwijających się demokratycznych państw Afryki, co potwierdzają agencje ratingowe - mówi Orłowski. Stabilizację polityczną ma potwierdzać to, że od uzyskania niepodległości w 1960 r. w tym kraju nie doszło do zamachu stanu (w Afryce to norma) i kolejne władze są wybierane w demokratycznych wyborach.

Dobre prognozy na przyszłość

Firma PwC, która doradzała Policom przy przejęciu AIG, wskazuje, że na koniec 2012 r. Senegal liczył 13,1 mln mieszkańców. Według danych Banku Światowego produkt krajowy brutto tego kraju w roku 2012 wyniósł 14,4 mld dol., co oznacza dochód na mieszkańca w wysokości około 1100 dol. i plasuje Senegal poniżej średniej dla kontynentu, która wynosi ok. 1600 dol. W najbliższych latach gospodarka Senegalu według prognoz Międzynarodowego Funduszu Walutowego będzie rozwijać się coraz szybciej. Wzrost gospodarczy będzie stopniowo zbliżał się do tempa rozwoju całego regionu Afryki Subsaharyjskiej i będzie rósł z 3,5 proc. w roku 2012 do 5,2 proc. w roku 2018.

Takie tempo rozwoju pozwoli zwiększyć rozmiary senegalskiej gospodarki do 20,2 mld dol., a dochód na mieszkańca do 1300 dolarów. Oczekiwanemu wysokiemu wzrostowi PKB sprzyja stabilna sytuacja makroekonomiczna kraju. Inflacja w roku 2012 wyniosła jedynie 1,5 proc. i była niższa niż we wszystkich krajach ościennych. Według prognoz MFW powolnemu obniżaniu ma także w najbliższych latach ulegać poziom deficytu obrotów bieżących (8 proc. PKB w roku 2012) oraz zadłużenia publicznego (47 proc. PKB w roku 2012).

42 proc. mieszkańców nie ma jeszcze 15 lat

Dodatkowo Senegal jest młodym krajem. Aż 42,7 proc. jego ludności nie ma jeszcze 15 lat. Ponad 60 proc. nie ukończyło jeszcze 24. roku życia. PwC zaznacza, że to wielki potencjał demograficzny. Według prognoz Międzynarodowego Funduszu Walutowego liczba ludności w Senegalu do roku 2018 wzrośnie o ponad 14 proc. i osiągnie 15,4 mln osób. 94 proc. Senegalczyków to muzułmanie, ok. 5 proc. to katolicy. Trzy największe grupy etniczne to plemiona Wolof, Pulaar i Jola stanowiące łącznie ponad 80 proc. ludności. 

1. 
   

Bioterrorism and the Pandemic Potential (Stratfor; March 7, 2013)

By Rebecca Keller

 

Periodic media reports of bird flu, a new SARS-like virus and a case of drug-resistant tuberculosis have kept the world informed, but they have also contributed to a distorted perception of the true threat such contagions pose. Perhaps the greatest value of the media coverage is the opportunity it provides to discuss the uncertainties and the best ways to prepare for biological threats, both natural and man-made.

 

It is important to remember that the risk of biological attack is very low and that, partly because viruses can mutate easily, the potential for natural outbreaks is unpredictable. The key is having the right tools in case of an outbreak, epidemic or pandemic, and these include a plan for containment, open channels of communication, scientific research and knowledge sharing. In most cases involving a potential pathogen, the news can appear far worse than the actual threat.

 

Infectious Disease Propagation

 

Since the beginning of February there have been occurrences of H5N1 (bird flu) in Cambodia, H1N1 (swine flu) in India and a new, or novel, coronavirus (a member of the same virus family as SARS) in the United Kingdom. In the past week, a man from Nepal traveled through several countries and eventually ended up in the United States, where it was discovered he had a drug-resistant form of tuberculosis, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released a report stating that antibiotic-resistant infections in hospitals are on the rise. In addition, the United States is experiencing a worse-than-normal flu season, bringing more attention to the influenza virus and other infectious diseases.

 

The potential for a disease to spread is measured by its effective reproduction number, or R-value, a numerical score that indicates whether a disease will propagate or die out. When the disease first occurs and no preventive measures are in place, the reproductive potential of the disease is referred to as R0, the basic reproduction rate. The numerical value is the number of cases a single case can cause on average during its infectious period. An R0 above 1 means the disease will likely spread (many influenza viruses have an R0 between 2 and 3, while measles had an R0 value of between 12 and 18), while an R-value of less than 1 indicates a disease will likely die out. Factors contributing to the spread of the disease include the length of time people are contagious, how mobile they are when they are contagious, how the disease spreads (through the air or bodily fluids) and how susceptible the population is. The initial R0, which assumes no inherent immunity, can be decreased through control measures that bring the value either near or below 1, stopping the further spread of the disease.

 

Both the coronavirus family and the influenza virus are RNA viruses, meaning they replicate using only RNA (which can be thought of as a single-stranded version of DNA, the more commonly known double helix containing genetic makeup). The rapid RNA replication used by many viruses is very susceptible to mutations, which are simply errors in the replication process. Some mutations can alter the behavior of a virus, including the severity of infection and how the virus is transmitted. The combination of two different strains of a virus, through a process known as antigenic shift, can result in what is essentially a new virus. Influenza, because it infects multiple species, is the hallmark example of this kind of evolution.

 

Mutations can make the virus unfamiliar to the body's immune system. The lack of established immunity within a population enables a disease to spread more rapidly because the population is less equipped to battle the disease. The trajectory of a mutated virus (or any other infectious disease) can reach three basic levels of magnitude. An outbreak is a small, localized occurrence of a pathogen. An epidemic indicates a more widespread infection that is still regional, while a pandemic indicates that the disease has spread to a global level.

 

Virologists are able to track mutations by deciphering the genetic sequence of new infections. It is this technology that helped scientists to determine last year that a smattering of respiratory infections discovered in the Middle East was actually a novel coronavirus. And it is possible that through a series of mutations a virus like H5N1 could change in such a way to become easily transmitted between humans.

 

Lessons Learned

 

There have been several influenza pandemics throughout history. The 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic is often cited as a worst-case scenario, since it infected between 20 and 40 percent of the world's population, killing roughly 2 percent of those infected. In more recent history, smaller incidents, including an epidemic of the SARS virus in 2003 and what was technically defined as a pandemic of the swine flu (H1N1) in 2009, caused fear of another pandemic like the 1918 occurrence. The spread of these two diseases was contained before reaching catastrophic levels, although the economic impact from fear of the diseases reached beyond the infected areas.

 

Previous pandemics have underscored the importance of preparation, which is essential to effective disease management. The World Health Organization lays out a set of guidelines for pandemic prevention and containment. The general principles of preparedness include stockpiling vaccines, which is done by both the United States and the European Union (although the possibility exists that the vaccines may not be effective against a new virus). In the event of an outbreak, the guidelines call for developed nations to share vaccines with developing nations. Containment strategies beyond vaccines include quarantine of exposed individuals, limited travel and additional screenings at places where the virus could easily spread, such as airports. Further measures include the closing of businesses, schools and borders.

 

Individual measures can also be taken to guard against infection. These involve general hygienic measures -- avoiding mass gatherings, thoroughly washing hands and even wearing masks in specific, high-risk situations. However, airborne viruses such as influenza are still the most difficult to contain because of the method of transmission. Diseases like noroviruses, HIV or cholera are more serious but have to be transmitted by blood, other bodily fluids or fecal matter. The threat of a rapid pandemic is thereby slowed because it is easier to identify potential contaminates and either avoid or sterilize them.

 

Research is another important aspect of overall preparedness. Knowledge gained from studying the viruses and the ready availability of information can be instrumental in tracking diseases. For example, the genomic sequence of the novel coronavirus was made available, helping scientists and doctors in different countries to readily identify the infection in limited cases and implement quarantine procedures as necessary. There have been only 13 documented cases of the novel coronavirus, so much is unknown regarding the disease. Recent cases in the United Kingdom indicate possible human-to-human transmission. Further sharing of information relating to the novel coronavirus can aid in both treatment and containment.

 

Ongoing research into viruses can also help make future vaccines more efficient against possible mutations, though this type of research is not without controversy. A case in point is research on the H5N1 virus.

 

H5N1 first appeared in humans in 1997. Of the more than 600 cases that have appeared since then, more than half have resulted in death. However, the virus is not easily transmitted because it must cross from bird to human. Human-to-human transmission of H5N1 is very rare, with only a few suspected incidents in the known history of the disease. While there is an H5N1 vaccine, it is possible that a new variation of the vaccine would be needed were the virus to mutate into a form that was transmittable between humans. Vaccines can take months or even years to develop, but preliminary research on the virus, before an outbreak, can help speed up development.

 

In December 2011, two separate research labs, one in the United States and one in the Netherlands, sought to publish their research on the H5N1 virus. Over the course of their research, these labs had created mutations in the virus that allowed for airborne transmission between ferrets. These mutations also caused other changes, including a decrease in the virus's lethality and robustness (the ability to survive outside the carrier). Publication of the research was delayed due to concerns that the results could increase the risk of accidental release of the virus by encouraging further research, or that the information could be used by terrorist organizations to conduct a biological attack. Eventually, publication of papers by both labs was allowed.

 

However, the scientific community imposed a voluntary moratorium in order to allow the community and regulatory bodies to determine the best practices moving forward. This voluntary ban was lifted for much of the world on Jan. 24, 2013. On Feb. 21, the National Institutes of Health in the United States issued proposed guidelines for federally funded labs working with H5N1. Once standards are set, decisions will likely be made on a case-by-case basis to allow research to continue.

 

Fear of a pandemic resulting from research on H5N1 continues even after the moratorium was lifted. Opponents of the research cite the possibility that the virus will be accidentally released or intentionally used as a bioweapon, since information in scientific publications would be considered readily available.

 

The Risk-Reward Equation

 

The risk of an accidental release of H5N1 is similar to that of other infectious pathogens currently being studied. Proper safety standards are key, of course, and experts in the field have had a year to determine the best way to proceed, balancing safety and research benefits. Previous work with the virus was conducted at biosafety level three out of four, which requires researchers wearing respirators and disposable gowns to work in pairs in a negative pressure environment. While many of these labs are part of universities, access is controlled either through keyed entry or even palm scanners. There are roughly 40 labs that submitted to the voluntary ban. Those wishing to resume work after the ban was lifted must comply with guidelines requiring strict national oversight and close communication and collaboration with national authorities. The risk of release either through accident or theft cannot be completely eliminated, but given the established parameters the risk is minimal.

 

The use of the pathogen as a biological weapon requires an assessment of whether a non-state actor would have the capabilities to isolate the virulent strain, then weaponize and distribute it. Stratfor has long held the position that while terrorist organizations may have rudimentary capabilities regarding biological weapons, the likelihood of a successful attack is very low.

 

Given that the laboratory version of H5N1 -- or any influenza virus, for that matter -- is a contagious pathogen, there would be two possible modes that a non-state actor would have to instigate an attack. The virus could be refined and then aerosolized and released into a populated area, or an individual could be infected with the virus and sent to freely circulate within a population.

 

There are severe constraints that make success using either of these methods unlikely. The technology needed to refine and aerosolize a pathogen for a biological attack is beyond the capability of most non-state actors. Even if they were able to develop a weapon, other factors such as wind patterns and humidity can render an attack ineffective. Using a human carrier is a less expensive method, but it requires that the biological agent be a contagion. Additionally, in order to infect the large number of people necessary to start an outbreak, the infected carrier must be mobile while contagious, something that is doubtful with a serious disease like small pox. The carrier also cannot be visibly ill because that would limit the necessary human contact.

 

As far as continued research is concerned, there is a risk-reward equation to consider. The threat of a terrorist attack using biological weapons is very low. And while it is impossible to predict viral outbreaks, it is important to be able to recognize a new strain of virus that could result in an epidemic or even a pandemic, enabling countries to respond more effectively. All of this hinges on the level of preparedness of developed nations and their ability to rapidly exchange information, conduct research and promote individual awareness of the threat.

 

"Bioterrorism and the Pandemic Potential is republished with permission of Stratfor."

Planning for a Safe Trip

By Scott Stewart

 

In light of the current U.S. State Department global travel warning, it seems an opportune time for a discussion on how to prepare to travel safely. Perhaps the most important key to remaining out of harm's way while traveling or working abroad is to know and understand -- in advance -- some of the idiosyncrasies of each country's bureaucracy and the security risks that have been identified for your destination. This knowledge and guidance will then allow you to decide whether to even travel to a particular destination. If you do decide to travel, it will help you plan and implement proper precautions for the environment you will be visiting. Fortunately, finding safety and security information for your destination country is easier than ever in the Internet age.

 

Travel Advisories and Consular Information Sheets

 

One of the most important first steps U.S. travelers should take before beginning a trip is seeing what the U.S. government says about your destination country. A great deal of information can be obtained from the U.S. government. Travelers accordingly should read the consular information sheet and check for travel warnings and public announcements pertaining to their destination countries before embarking. Such information can be obtained in person at passport agencies inside the United States or at U.S. embassies and consulates abroad. This information can also be obtained by calling the U.S. State Department, but the quickest and easiest way to obtain it is online: The State Department publishes them all on its website here.

 

A "travel warning" is a document recommending that travel to a specific country be deferred or avoided. A "public announcement" is intended to disseminate information about short-term conditions that could pose a risk to American travelers. Public announcements can be issued even when the U.S. government is not sure Americans will be specifically targeted but is concerned that a potential threat exists. The State Department often will issue public announcements regarding terrorist threats, coups and large public demonstrations, and sometimes will publish them to note upcoming anniversaries of significant past terrorist events.

 

The State Department issues travel warnings for only a handful of countries. Many countries do not have any active public announcements pertaining to them, but the department maintains a "consular information sheet" for every country, even countries the United States does not have formal diplomatic relations with, such as Iran. The consular information sheet is a useful document that provides information not only about what documents you need to enter the destination country but also on crime, safety, security, political stability, in-country medical care, currency regulations and road safety. It also contains contact information for the U.S. embassy and U.S. consulates (if any) in the country. The consular information sheet also usually contains a link to the local U.S. embassy's website.

 

It is a good idea for travelers to print out a copy of the consular information sheet and take it with them on their trip. At the very least, travelers should be sure to print out or write down the phone number of the U.S. embassy -- including the after-hours phone number (which generally rings into the Marine security guard on duty at the embassy's security command center, normally referred to as "Post One," or to the embassy's duty officer). The paper with the embassy contact numbers should be kept separate from the traveler's wallet so that if the wallet gets lost or stolen, the contact information will not be lost with it.

 

Significantly, consular information sheets generally do not provide advice or security recommendations to travelers. They are intended to provide just the facts, and travelers are then supposed to use the information provided in the consular information sheets to make their own judgments and determine their own courses of action. Because of this, if the consular information sheet for your destination country actually breaks this protocol and does make a recommendation, you should take that recommendation seriously.

 

It is also prudent for American travelers to register with the U.S. State Department before leaving the country. This will be helpful not only in case something happens to you while abroad or if there is a crisis in the country you are visiting, but also if there is a family emergency in the United States and someone needs to locate you. Registration is free, is accomplished via a secure website and only takes a few minutes. You can register online at with the State Department here. Foreign citizens should also register with their respective embassies if their countries offer similar programs, like Australia's "Smart Traveler."

 

Other Government Travel Reports

 

In order to ensure that I am getting a balanced look at a specific country and to obtain more detailed information, I generally like to look at travel advice from several additional countries -- namely, the British, Canadian and Australian governments. The British travel advice website can be found here, the Canadian website here and the Australian website here.

 

The U.S. State Department's Bureau of Consular Affairs coordinates daily with the British, Canadian and Australian governments, so the four countries will have largely the same big picture of the security environment in a specific country. It is very unlikely that you would find a U.S. travel advisory warning against travel to country X and then visit the British travel advice site and read that visiting country X is fine because everything is "just ducky" there.

 

However, the real value to be gained by reading these different reports is at the granular level. The anecdotal cases the foreign governments discuss in their travel sheets may differ from those contained in the U.S. consular information sheet. For example, while compiling a travel briefing for a client once, I noted in a British advisory that British citizens in a particular city had been victimized by local criminal gangs who had begun to engage in "express kidnappings" -- something that the U.S. consular information sheet did not note. Express kidnappings, which are short-term kidnappings meant to drain the contents of the victim's bank account via his or her ATM card, were new for that country. Even though we had seen the tactic used elsewhere in the region, it was helpful to be able to warn our customer of the new threat. So in that case, reading the British advisory in addition to the U.S. consular information sheet was well worth my time.

 

Another great source of granular crime and safety information is the annual crime and safety report issued by the American Regional Security Officer for a particular country or city. Sometimes, these reports can be found on the embassy's website, but they can also be read on the Overseas Security Advisory Council's website here. While some OSAC material is for constituent use only, crime and safety reports can be read by anyone and no login is required.

 

It is also important to remember that conditions in your destination country can change. Because of this, if government travel sites were checked far in advance of the trip, they should be checked again shortly before departure to ensure that no critical changes have occurred.

 

Other Information

 

When travelers leave the United States, they are no longer subject to U.S. laws and regulations but to the laws of the country they are visiting. Therefore, travelers need to learn as much as they can about those local laws before they travel.

 

Travelers should also keep up with the political situation in their destination country and that of the region it is in. Many websites, including Stratfor, are excellent sources of information pertaining to political, terrorism and security information. General information on the country, its government, culture, customs, etc., can be found at the library or online through any number of websites such as the National Geographic Society and the CIA's World Factbook.

 

Travelers should also familiarize themselves with maps of the areas they will be visiting. This will not only help them avoid being victimized by unscrupulous cab drivers and identify key locations such as their hotel or embassy, but can also help keep them from wandering into dangerous areas.

 

The destination country may also have informative government websites, such as a site run by the government department of tourism or the country's embassy in the United States. For obvious reasons, these sites should be read carefully. In most cases, the host country government will want to be as positive as possible to encourage tourism. Therefore, such sites rarely provide any information on crime and security because they fear it could scare tourists (and their money) away. If such sites do acknowledge security problems, this is a strong indicator that the problem is too large to ignore and you should pay close attention to any warnings the sites provide.

 

Health Information

 

Prior to travel, you should also go the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's travel health information site, which can be found here. This site provides a wealth of information about vaccinations required for specific countries and regions and provides important tips about avoiding insect-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever as well as food- and water-borne ailments such as cholera and amoebic dysentery. The CDC also issues travel health precautions and warnings as well as information on sporadic outbreaks of dangerous diseases.

 

Travelers should also consult with their doctor well in advance of their trip to ensure their vaccinations are up to date and that they have time to receive all the required vaccinations for their destination before they depart. Your doctor can also prescribe anti-malarial medication if required. Even travelers in good health need to ensure they have the appropriate vaccinations and should take measures to avoid contracting dysentery and other food- and water-borne illnesses. (It is very difficult to have fun on a vacation when you are sick and unable to leave your hotel room.) Many times, travel health clinics will not only give vaccinations but will also issue handy medical travel kits that contain adhesive bandages and an assortment of over-the-counter pharmaceuticals such as pain relievers and anti-diarrhea medicines. Sometimes these kits will even contain prescription antibiotics for use in case of severe dysentery.

 

Insurance

 

Another consideration is insurance. You should check your homeowner's insurance policy or call your insurance agent to determine if your property insurance policy will cover losses or theft abroad. It is also prudent to find out if your health insurance will cover you overseas. In many instances, insurance companies will pay for all or a portion of medical coverage overseas, but you will often have to pay for the services at the time they are provided and then get reimbursed by the insurance company once you return home. Therefore, you should ensure that you have a way to pay for any necessary medical treatment. The U.S. embassy can provide assistance in the way of emergency loans to pay for your medical treatment, but such assistance requires a lot of paperwork.

 

You should also determine whether your medical insurance will pay for the cost of medical evacuation (medevac) in the case of a dire medical emergency. For example, a colleague of mine at the State Department had to be medevaced from Khartoum with cerebral malaria because local medical professionals could not stabilize him and did not have adequate facilities to care for him in Sudan.

 

Travelers going to a country with very poor in-country medical care and whose insurance will not pay for medical evacuation should give serious consideration to purchasing a medical insurance policy for the trip that will cover the cost of medical evacuation, which can run into the tens of thousands of dollars. Chances are, you will not need to be medically evacuated. But if you do, the cost of not having the coverage can be staggering.

 

Editor's Note: This Security Weekly is a condensed version of a chapter from Stewart's book, "Shrewd as Serpents and Innocent as Doves: A Practical Security Guide for Christian Travelers."

 

"Planning for a Safe Trip is republished with permission of Stratfor."

Nucelar fission vs. nuclear fusion

Wat als? - De marketingman!

The Geopolitics of Shale

By Robert D. Kaplan

According to the elite newspapers and journals of opinion, the future of foreign affairs mainly rests on ideas: the moral impetus for humanitarian intervention, the various theories governing exchange rates and debt rebalancing necessary to fix Europe, the rise of cosmopolitanism alongside the stubborn vibrancy of nationalism in East Asia and so on. In other words, the world of the future can be engineered and defined based on doctoral theses. And to a certain extent this may be true. As the 20th century showed us, ideologies -- whether communism, fascism or humanism -- matter and matter greatly.

 

But there is another truth: The reality of large, impersonal forces like geography and the environment that also help to determine the future of human events. Africa has historically been poor largely because of few good natural harbors and few navigable rivers from the interior to the coast. Russia is paranoid because its land mass is exposed to invasion with few natural barriers. The Persian Gulf sheikhdoms are fabulously wealthy not because of ideas but because of large energy deposits underground. You get the point. Intellectuals concentrate on what they can change, but we are helpless to change much of what happens.

 

Enter shale, a sedimentary rock within which natural gas can be trapped. Shale gas constitutes a new source of extractable energy for the post-industrial world. Countries that have considerable shale deposits will be better placed in the 21st century competition between states, and those without such deposits will be worse off. Ideas will matter little in this regard.

 

Stratfor, as it happens, has studied the issue in depth. Herein is my own analysis, influenced in part by Stratfor's research.

 

So let's look at who has shale and how that may change geopolitics. For the future will be heavily influenced by what lies underground.

 

The United States, it turns out, has vast deposits of shale gas: in Texas, Louisiana, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New York and elsewhere. America, regardless of many of the political choices it makes, is poised to be an energy giant of the 21st century. In particular, the Gulf Coast, centered on Texas and Louisiana, has embarked upon a shale gas and tight oil boom. That development will make the Caribbean an economic focal point of the Western Hemisphere, encouraged further by the 2014 widening of the Panama Canal. At the same time, cooperation between Texas and adjacent Mexico will intensify, as Mexico increasingly becomes a market for shale gas, with its own exploited shale basins near its northern border.

 

This is, in part, troubling news for Russia. Russia is currently the energy giant of Europe, exporting natural gas westward in great quantities, providing Moscow with political leverage all over Central and particularly Eastern Europe. However, Russia's reserves are often in parts of Siberia that are hard and expensive to exploit -- though Russia's extraction technology, once old, has been considerably modernized. And Russia for the moment may face relatively little competition in Europe. But what if in the future the United States were able to export shale gas to Europe at a competitive price?

 

The United States still has few capabilities to export shale gas to Europe. It would have to build new liquefaction facilities to do that; in other words, it would have to erect plants on the Gulf of Mexico that convert the gas into liquid so that it could be transported by ship across the Atlantic, where regasification facilities there would reconvert it back into gas. This is doable with capital investment, expertise and favorable legislation. Countries that build such facilities will have more energy options, to export or import, whatever the case may be. So imagine a future in which the United States exports liquefied shale gas to Europe, reducing the dependence that European countries have on Russian energy. The geopolitics of Europe could shift somewhat. Natural gas might become less of a political tool for Russia and more of a purely economic one (though even such a not-so-subtle shift would require significant exports of shale gas from North America to Europe).

 

Less dependence on Russia would allow the vision of a truly independent, culturally vibrant Central and Eastern Europe to fully prosper -- an ideal of the region's intellectuals for centuries, even as ideas in this case would have little to do with it.

 

This might especially be relevant to Poland. For Poland may have significant deposits of shale gas. Were Polish shale deposits to prove the largest in Europe (a very big "if"), Poland could become more of an energy producer in its own right, turning this flat country with no natural defenses to the east and west -- annihilated by both Germany and the Soviet Union in the 20th century -- into a pivot state or midlevel power in the 21st. The United States, in turn, somewhat liberated from Middle East oil because of its own energy sources (including natural gas finds), could focus on building up Poland as a friendly power, even as it loses substantial interest in Saudi Arabia. To be sure, the immense deposits of oil and natural gas in the Arabian Peninsula, Iraq and Iran will keep the Middle East a major energy exporter for decades. But the shale gas revolution will complicate the world's hydrocarbon supply and allocation, so that the Middle East may lose some of its primacy.

 

It turns out that Australia also has large new natural gas deposits that, with liquefaction facilities, could turn it into a principal energy exporter to East Asia, assuming Australia significantly lowers its cost of production (which may prove very hard to do). Because Australia is already starting to emerge as the most dependable military ally of the United States in the Anglosphere, the alliance of these two great energy producers of the future could further cement Western influence in Asia. The United States and Australia would divide up the world: after a fashion, of course. Indeed, if unconventional natural gas exploitation has anything to do with it, the so-called post-American world would be anything but.

The geopolitical emergence of Canada -- again, the result of natural gas and oil -- could amplify this trend. Canada has immense natural gas deposits in Alberta, which could possibly be transported by future pipelines to British Columbia, where, with liquefaction facilities, it could then be exported to East Asia. Meanwhile, eastern Canada could be the beneficiary of new shale gas deposits that reach across the border into the northeastern United States. Thus, new energy discoveries would bind the two North American countries closer, even as North America and Australia become more powerful on the world scene.

 

China also has significant deposits of shale gas in its interior provinces. Because Beijing is burdened by relatively few regulations, the regime could acquire the land and build the infrastructure necessary for its exploitation. This would ease somewhat China's energy crunch and aid Beijing's strategy to compensate for the decline of its coastal-oriented economic model by spurring development inland.

 

The countries that might conceivably suffer on account of a shale gas revolution would be landlocked, politically unstable oil producers such as Chad, Sudan and South Sudan, whose hydrocarbons could become relatively less valuable as these other energy sources come online. China, especially, might in the future lose interest in the energy deposits in such low-end, high-risk countries if shale gas became plentiful in its own interior.

 

In general, the coming of shale gas will magnify the importance of geography. Which countries have shale underground and which don't will help determine power relationships. And because shale gas can be transported across oceans in liquid form, states with coastlines will have the advantage. The world will be smaller because of unconventional gas extraction technology, but that only increases the preciousness of geography, rather than decreases it.

 

"The Geopolitics of Shale" is republished with permission of Stratfor.

Published on the Stratfor website on the 19th December 2012.